Gerardo Del Real,
Editor
Dec. 31, 2025
What a close to a truly phenomenal and historic year in the metals space.
Yesterday alone, palladium was down as much as 17% at one point. Silver and gold were hit hard as well, down roughly 8% and nearly $200 per ounce, respectively.
That pullback lasted all of one day.
As we speak, gold is back around $4,375 per ounce, silver is once again flirting with $80 an ounce, and platinum is up approximately 6%.
Copper continues to make new record highs as the market finally begins to internalize what many of us have been talking about for some time now: structural deficits are forming, and they will lead not just to higher prices but also to very real physical shortages.
I say all of that to make one simple point: dips are going to be violent but they will be short-lived.
And they are meant to be bought.
You can add uranium and lithium to that list as well.
On the copper front, Kostas Bintas of Mercuria told Bloomberg that U.S. tariff arbitrage is draining global inventories and setting the stage for another powerful leg higher in prices.
“This is the big one,” Bintas said in an interview during an industry conference in Shanghai. “If the world keeps going like this, we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”
He went on to add, “Just looking at the facts, mathematically… what is going to happen if all of this continues? There’s only one answer: there will be tightness and a higher price.”
Earlier this year, Jeff Currie — who led commodities research at Goldman Sachs for nearly three decades and now serves as Chief Strategy Officer for Energy Pathways at the Carlyle Group — told Bloomberg’s Odd Lots that copper is the “most compelling trade I’ve seen in my 30-year trading career.”
On the gold front, it’s becoming increasingly clear that gold is now being used as a hedge against the growing fiscal recklessness of governments around the world.
Here’s a sobering data point from The Kobeissi Letter. Interest costs on U.S. debt now consume 24 cents of every dollar in government tax revenue. The interest expense as a percentage of collected taxes has nearly doubled over the past four years.
Over the last 12 months alone, interest expenditures reached $1.24 trillion — an all-time high. October saw a record $104.4 billion in gross interest payments, the highest ever for that month.
Interest expense is now the second-largest government outlay, exceeding both defense and healthcare spending, trailing only Social Security at roughly $1.6 trillion.
Still think gold is overpriced?
The primary drivers behind gold and silver’s move higher remain central banks and institutional capital — ETF flows and big money positioning. Retail participation will come later, and when it does, that will be our signal that the rally is maturing.
We’re not there yet.
It was a great 2025 in my corner of the world, and I couldn’t be more excited about what lies ahead in 2026.
Wishing you all a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.
Let's get it,
Gerardo Del Real
Editor, Daily Profit Cycle